Earlier this week in the comments of the power rankings, one reader — shout out to Jen A. — left a lot of good questions about my process for the weekly top 25. Those queries made me realize we haven’t done a mailbag in a while. And as we inch closer to the start of this historic NCAA Tournament, I figured there was no time like the present to answer your questions.
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Side note: In the coming months, we’ll be putting out a survey to our subscribers. We want to know what you’ve liked and what you haven’t liked about our women’s basketball coverage so far, where you want us to go deeper and which stories you wish you would’ve seen on our site this past year. Do you want to see more mailbags? Do you want to have more live chats? You’ll be able to let us know in the survey.
So, let’s get to it. Thanks to everyone who submitted these thoughtful questions.
Editor’s note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity.
Wondering if you could at some point talk about how you distinguish between the really good teams within an era or across years (i.e. cross-sectionally or longitudinally). For example, why Stanford over UConn this week? Is there a difference between the top four now? How do you compare UConn teams over the years? It seems that every year people talk about UConn’s team being amazing, and I would love some better perspective on whether their program got worse this year or whether other teams just got better (e.g. Stanford’s team seems to have gotten better this year)? Is it just due to talent or culture change, etc.? — Jen A.
The power rankings are a very fluid document (seriously, if you could see the ongoing Google doc that my editor and I have, you would realize how much goes into these things), and as the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20. I’ve watched a lot of games this year, and each one informs the way I view the next. For instance, a lot of teams got early-season credit for playing Mississippi State well, but as the Bulldogs faltered toward the end of the season, I wasn’t valuing that win as highly.
Put simply: The power ranking is a snapshot of how good teams are playing at that moment. It reflects momentum swings probably better than some other rankings. It doesn’t have quotas for featuring a certain numbers of teams from conference X, nor does it necessitate a mid-major team (even an undefeated one) be ranked at a certain level.
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So, I’ll answer your questions one by one.
Why Stanford over UConn this week?
From a very non-scientific standpoint, every time I watch Stanford, I come away more impressed by their physicality, their weapons and their growth. I think UConn is very good, but their youth lends itself to swings that I don’t see as much with the Cardinal. And as we get closer to the NCAA Tournament, there’s a small voice in the back of my head that keeps saying, “Stanford is the only team in the nation that has lived a reality similar to what teams will experience in the NCAA bubble.” They two months they spent away from home because of COVID-19 restrictions in Palo Alto, Calif., means something in these rankings.
Difference between the top-four teams now?
I’d say the main difference is probably consistent strength of schedule. NC State and UConn have each played top competition, but they haven’t faced the kind of quality competition on a weekly basis that Stanford and South Carolina have seen in conference play. Simply put: The middle tier of the Pac-12 and SEC is better than that of the ACC and Big East. How that all translates into a wild NCAA Tournament? We’ll see.
Has UConn gotten worse this year? (paraphrased)
Good question. I think we’ll learn a lot more about this team during the tournament.
Disclaimer: This season is uniquely difficult for everyone, and especially for young teams that don’t have a baseline of college sports experience. I say this not to give passes to teams that don’t show up nor to those that underachieve, but I think we all need to remember that the backdrop of this season is: one, a global pandemic; two, a national reckoning on race; and three, a lawsuit reaching the Supreme Court about student-athletes’ rights, protections and payments.
Now, on to UConn …
One main difference with this UConn team is that they’re young. When you look back at the last four UConn teams that made it to the Final Four, each had a core group of players who had experience starting and playing together. In 2019, it was Napheesa Collier, Katie Lou Samuelson and Crystal Dangerfield. In 2018, it was Collier, Samuelson, Kia Nurse and Gabby Williams. In 2017, it was Samuelson, Nurse and Williams. And in 2016, it was Nurse, Moriah Jefferson, Morgan Tuck and Breanna Stewart. That level of cohesiveness, especially against elite competition, is key.
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This year, that’s not the case. Paige Bueckers and Nika Mühl are freshmen. Evina Westbrook hadn’t started a game at UConn coming into this season. Not to mention, these groups didn’t have much preseason time to gel nor a regular number of in-season practices.
So, I don’t know whether this Huskies team is “better” or “worse” than other groups. Do I think they’d beat the 2019 Final Four team? No. Maybe that answers your question.
What are your thoughts on Charli Collier declaring for the WNBA Draft? Do you think the idea of declaring early will become more common in the future? — Olivia V.
I think Collier recognized the opportunity she had as a talented, physical big in a draft class that has more guards than posts, and she took it. Her WNBA ceiling is very high and she’s betting on herself. I like it.
But in terms of more players declaring early in the future, I don’t think we’ll see it happen without WNBA expansion. There are a limited number of roster spots in the WNBA — 144, to be exact. And with the new CBA and a higher supermax salary, I think we could see more teams carry 11 players through the season, which means even fewer spots.
We’re also seeing players extend their careers more and more. And while there are some cases in which a rookie might be more valuable to a franchise than a 10-year veteran, the value of a cohesive roster with veteran players is becoming more apparent. With the supermax salary, those veteran players also have more of a financial incentive to stick around longer.
What team do you think has the most potential, but right now is flying under the radar? — Colleen B.
Oregon State is a team that jumps to mind. The Beavers played just 15 games during the regular season because of various COVID-19 pauses. So the more time this group spends together on the court, the better it’ll be. They showed that to be true by knocking off Oregon twice in their last three games.
Wyoming is riding a wave of momentum right now that no one saw coming. Hitting your stride at the right time of the season is key — especially in this often disrupted one — so if they’ve bottled that momentum, they could catch some teams.
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If Florida Gulf Coast continues to hit 3-pointers as it has all season (12 per game), I also wouldn’t be surprised to see that program upset some teams. If the Eagles come across a team like Oregon State, Oklahoma State or Rutgers — opponents have shot 35 percent against those teams from beyond the 3-point line this season.
Granted it is a mid-major, but does the accomplishment of a California Baptist going undefeated all season in just its third season in Division I indicate that five years of transition to NCAA Tournament eligibility may be too long? — Jim W.
I’ve never really understood the waiting period. I’d like to say there are a lot of smart reasons the NCAA has that rule, but I know better than that.
If a team can compete for a conference championship, why not a national championship? And when the reverse happens — for instance, a FBS team transitions to the FCS — there isn’t a waiting period for that team to compete for national championships. The buffer damages a program’s ability to recruit top prospects. The opportunity to compete for a national championship can be one of the biggest pulls for a student-athlete, especially when it involves a program on the rise. How many times have we heard a high school player say, “I want to help team X get to the next level,” during a commitment announcement? This five-year waiting period ensures that certain recruiting classes will never have that opportunity.
Another element to consider: Cal Baptist didn’t have a strong non-conference schedule this year, but let’s say it did play a Pac-12 team and won. That Pac-12 team would have a loss on its schedule that isn’t seen as a “quality loss” because the NCAA, not the basketball itself, has determined that Cal Baptist isn’t an NCAA team.
If the current top-16 rankings from Nos. 2 through 28 hold, which one is the toughest group? Which No. 1 should be on upset alert? — Erica Y.
So, for anyone that doesn’t have the regions memorized (come on people, it’s March!), here’s a refresher.
Alamo Region
1. UConn
2. Arizona
3. Georgia
4. Arkansas
River Walk Region
1. Stanford
2. Baylor
3. Louisville
4. Tennessee
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Mercado Region
1. Texas A&M
2. Maryland
3. UCLA
4. Kentucky
Hemisfair Region
1. South Carolina
2. NC State
3. Indiana
4. Oregon
For the toughest grouping, I’m going with the River Walk Region. To have the defensive-minded Stanford and Baylor teams in the same region? Woof. In that Elite Eight matchup between the two, I’d bet the first team to 50 wins. But also, good luck to any offense (and game-planner) that has to fight through both the Cardinal and the Bears.
As for a No. 1 seed that needs to be on upset alert? UConn, simply because I think Georgia is hitting its stride and is going to be really hungry after losing to South Carolina in the SEC championship game. Georgia’s Jenna Staiti could have a similar impact in that matchup that South Carolina’s Aliyah Boston did against UConn during the regular season, when she finished with 17 points and 15 rebounds. The Bulldogs’ defense is also capable of stifling the Huskies’ transition game.
(Photo: David Butler II / USA TODAY Sports)
Chantel Jennings is The Athletic's senior writer for the WNBA and women's college basketball. She covered college sports for the past decade at ESPN.com and The Athletic and spent the 2019-20 academic year in residence at the University of Michigan's Knight-Wallace Fellowship for Journalists. Follow Chantel on Twitter @chanteljennings
