College basketball predictions: Which preseason Top 10 team will fall on hard times? (2024)

It happens more than you might think: A team starts the season ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll, only to fall flat on its face.

Last season, North Carolina, Kentucky and Arkansas went from preseason top 10 to unranked entering the NCAA Tournament, with the Tar Heels becoming the first preseason No. 1 to miss the tournament altogether. Michigan was No. 6 to start the 2021-22 season and barely squeaked into March Madness with a 17-14 record. In 2020-2021, Duke and Kentucky missed the tournament despite being top 10 in November, while Wisconsin went from seventh to unranked. (To be fair, that was a reallyweird year).

Haha, you sportswriter nerds are terrible at rankings!

Well, all those teams were also top 10 in the preseason coaches poll.

Huh. Well, coaches are busy, and they probably just follow the narrative you created!

Computers mostly agreed. UNC was ninth in the preseason KenPom rankings last year, for example; that Michigan team was second and the 2020-21 Kentucky team that finished 9-16 was KenPom’s preseason No. 12.

Oh. Uh … well, you’re still nerds!

It’s not easy to figure out which highly-ranked team will step on all the rakes. But we’ll try it anyway. We asked our voters the following question: Which preseason top 10 team will be unranked when Selection Sunday rolls around?

Now let’s hear some rationales:

Tennessee

So, I get why AP voters slotted Tennessee ninth in this year’s preseason poll: excellent coach in Rick Barnes; experienced returners like Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James; a pair of intriguing transfers, especially Northern Colorado import Dalton Knecht; and — perhaps most importantly — the looming return, at some point, of guard Zakai Zeigler, one of college basketball’s best defenders last season before his torn ACL.

Those are all, objectively, good things. And as we saw this weekend, in UT’s one-point exhibition win over Michigan State, the ceiling here looks *best Larry David impression* pretty, pretty good. (That the Volunteers were so potent offensively sans Vescovi and Zeigler earned a raised brow from yours truly.) But — of course there was a “but” coming — even as someone who witnessed Tennessee’s most recent win, a (literal) slugfest against Duke in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, I have some questions about the Volunteers’ ability to consistently hit the peak they did Sunday. In rapid-fire fashion:

When does Zeigler return, and can he recapture his old form?

Can Vescovi be the best player on a championship team?

Who does this team go to when it needs a late basket?

(The answer to that last question, after Sunday’s showing, might very well be Knecht or fellow newcomer Jordan Gainey.)

In that aforementioned Duke win, the Vols’ two most important players were Uros Plavsic — the 7-foot-1 tone-setting big man — and Olivier Nkamhoua, who erupted for a season-high-tying 27 points. Guess who’s no longer on Tennessee’s roster? Ding ding ding. (Nkamhoua transferred to Michigan, while Plavsic is now playing overseas.)

Zeigler has proven he can be one of the best guards in the game … when healthy. An important, and entirely indeterminable, caveat. Vescovi is a savvy vet and a solid shooter, but as a team’s top — and arguably only — proven high-major perimeter scorer? Thus far in his career, that’s been a somewhat outsized role for him. And lastly, as good a coach as Barnes is, he’s only had one top-30 offense in his eight seasons in Knoxville, per KenPom; last year’s group was No. 64 … before losing three of its top six scorers.

Yes, there’s plenty of talent here … but the same number of unknowns — and that’s too much uncertainty for me to love the preseason SEC favorites. — Brendan Marks — Brendan Marks

Florida Atlantic

This choice pains me, for I loved watching the Owls play last season and think they will be really good again. I ranked them No. 1 in the mid-major preseason Top 10, after all, and Dusty May lost just one rotation player from a 35-win team that was a Lamont Butler buzzer-beater from the national title game.

So don’t take this as any kind of real knock against FAU. But when you look at the top 10, May’s team has A) the shortest track record of success and B) the biggest jump up in competition this season. I’m not sure the American Athletic Conference is that much of a leap from Conference USA, especially after Houston and Cincinnati bolted to the Big 12 (the AAC ranked two spots ahead of CUSA in KenPom’s league rankings last season). Still, it will be a new conference with new challenges for the Owls to navigate, like playing at Memphis and Wichita State. And then let’s look at the (laudably) ambitious nonconference schedule, which includes neutral-site games against Arizona and Illinois and in the ESPN Events Invitational, where Florida Atlantic opens against Butler and could face Texas A&M and Iowa State. The Owls played only one high-major opponent last season, winning at Florida.

Let’s say they lose those games against Arizona and Illinois and only go 1-2 in the ESPN Events Invitational, and then lose something like five games in the AAC. Is this a Top-25 team then? Maybe, maybe not. The other thing to consider is FAU’s record in close games a year ago. It went 11-2 in games decided by five points or fewer, one year after going winless in those situations. Experience and talent make a big difference, sure, but single-possession games can often be quite random. A ball bounces off the rim, a guy buries a halfcourt shot, Butler makes a contested midrange jumper, etc.

I’m confident Florida Atlantic will play in the NCAA Tournament and be dangerous when it gets there, but I also don’t have to squint too much to see how the Owls could fall out of the top 25 by March. And that’s OK. They made the Final Four last season … as a No. 9 seed. — Brian Bennett

Marquette

A recent conversation with a Big East coach led to a question that’s stuck with me ever since. Discussing Marquette as a possible league favorite, he posited, “Who’s the pro?” With the departure of Olivier-Maxence Prosper, the closest thing the Golden Eagles have to a real pro prospect is Oso Ighodaro. The point was, does Marquette have enough high-end talent to live up to expectations?

There’s a lot to love about Marquette as a team, no doubt. But last season did have the feel of a magic carpet ride. A lot went right. A lot of shots went in. A 6-2 record in Big East games decided by six points or fewer (or in OT) was the second-most wins in the league behind Xavier (7-4). The offense ranked seventh nationally (1.19 ppp) and seventh in eFG percent (56.0), despite Shaka Smart having never previously coached an offensive unit that finished top 15 in either category. Can that be replicated?

While last year’s nonconference schedule had a few marquee games (loss at Purdue, win vs. Baylor, loss vs. Wisconsin), this season brings a major step up. Marquette goes to Illinois, to Wisconsin, brings Texas and Notre Dame to Milwaukee, and plays three games in the Maui Invitational. The Golden Eagles open against UCLA, then could play Kansas in the second game, and a finale against one of Gonzaga, Purdue, Syracuse or Tennessee. Then comes the Big East slate.

This isn’t to say Marquette won’t be an NCAA Tournament team or compete for another Big East title. But picking Marquette first in the conference preseason poll? A top-five ranking? Final Four tickets? Feels like it could be a bit of an overreach. UConn and Creighton could very well be the class of this league, while Marquette ends up with Villanova and Xavier in the next tier. — Brendan Quinn

Creighton

My real answer is no one. Usually, it would be a team with a bunch of hyped freshmen, but the Top 10 this year is full of veteran squads. If we’re trying to decide who has the most bust potential among those teams, I’ll go with Creighton.

The Bluejays’ depth is concerning. We saw last year how fragile they were when one of their best players went out. They were 0-3 in games that Ryan Kalkbrenner missed. They have a great starting five, but the bench is just not as strong as the other teams in the Top 10. Losing Ryan Nembhard was also a tough blow (and puzzling). Nembhard was the perfect point guard in Greg McDermott’s system. McDermott found a solid backcourt replacement in Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth, but I think Trey Alexander is going to be the one taking over the role of lead ballhandler. Alexander is talented, and I’m predicting he’ll have a really good year — he was a preseason second-team All-American on my ballot. But he’s more of a scoring guard, and things just might not flow as well with him at point.

With veterans like Ashworth and Baylor Scheierman alongside him — who are both good and willing passers — the Jays are probably going to figure out how to run good offense. It’s just the depth and loss of Nembhard that at least give me some worries about whether Creighton can live up to expectations. — CJ Moore

UConn

I never want to root for a team to disappoint, so I’d be happy to be proven wrong here. But even in a sport that sees significant roster turnover year in and year out, I think we collectively might be discounting just how much UConn is losing from its national championship-winning roster. Adama Sanogo, Jordan Hawkins and Andre Jackson Jr. are all gone — the three biggest stars from last season. Yes, elite freshmen are coming in, and Donovan Clingan will anchor this team. But I would not be surprised if this team takes a while to gel and/or struggles in a loaded Big East. Marquette and Creighton were both picked to finish ahead of UConn in the league’s preseason poll, and the coaching pedigree in this conference got even stronger with the addition of Rick Pitino at St. John’s. There are very few easy games on that conference schedule — for anyone. Plus, Clingan’s preseason foot injury raises concerns about his availability for the start of the season.

The Huskies could certainly live up to their high expectations this season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up falling a bit short and get beat up a bit too badly in Big East play. — Nicole Auerbach

(Our panel of voters: Nicole Auerbach, Tobias Bass, Brian Bennett, Scott Dochterman, Brian Hamilton, Brendan Marks, CJ Moore, Dana O’Neil, Brendan Quinn, Joe Rexrode, Kyle Tucker, and Justin Williams.)

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(Top photo of Tennessee’s Santiago Vescovi and Florida Atlantic’s Bryan Greenlee: Al Bello / Getty Images)